陶云, 何群. 云南降水量时空分布特征对气候变暖的响应[J]. 云南大学学报(自然科学版), 2008, 30(6): 587-595.
引用本文: 陶云, 何群. 云南降水量时空分布特征对气候变暖的响应[J]. 云南大学学报(自然科学版), 2008, 30(6): 587-595.
TAO Yun, HE Qun. The temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation over Yunnan province and its response to global warming[J]. Journal of Yunnan University: Natural Sciences Edition, 2008, 30(6): 587-595.
Citation: TAO Yun, HE Qun. The temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation over Yunnan province and its response to global warming[J]. Journal of Yunnan University: Natural Sciences Edition, 2008, 30(6): 587-595.

云南降水量时空分布特征对气候变暖的响应

The temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation over Yunnan province and its response to global warming

  • 摘要: 全球变暖对区域气候的影响研究是当今全球气候变化研究的重要内容之一.利用云南122个测站1961~2006年逐月降水量、气温观测资料及Hardley Center再分析资料,采用回归分析方法,分析了全球气候变暖背景下云南降水的时空变化特征,获得了一些有意义的结果:①近50年来云南降水量夏、秋减少,春、冬季增加,年降水减少;②云南年、四季降水有着明显年代际变化趋势;③相关分析发现,全球、北半球平均气温升高有利于云南春季、冬季降水增加,不利于夏季、秋季及年降水增加;④云南年降水量、春季降水、夏季降水及秋季降水都存在一个或多个显著性突变点,而冬季降水没有检测出突变点;⑤近50 a来云南降水量变化也存在明显的区域分布特征.年降水量及秋季降水量基本为西增加东减少型,春季降水为全省一致增多型,夏季降水几乎为全省一致减少型,冬季降水滇西南减少其余大部增加.

     

    Abstract: It is one of the most important fields of presently global climate change research to study the influence of global warming on regional climate change.Based on the monthly precipitation and temperature data of Yunnan’s 122 stations and Hardley Center reanalyzed data from 1961 to 2006,and by using the methods of regressive analysis and correlation analysis,the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation over Yunnan Province under the background of global warming was studied.The results indicated that ①The summer and autumn precipitation has reduced,the spring and winter precipitation has increased and annual precipitation has also reduced in nearly 50 years over Yunnan province;②There are obvious interdecadal change trend in the annual and the four seasons precipitation of Yunnan;③Using correlation analysis method,it is discovered that the spring and winter precipitation has increased and the summer,autumn and annual precipitation has reduced with the global and Northern Hemisphere averaged temperature warming;④There are one or several obvious abrupt points in the annual,spring,summer and autumn precipitation of Yunnan and no obvious abrupt points in the winter precipitation;⑤There is obviously regional distribution in the nearly 50 years precipitation changes over Yunnan province.The annual and autumn precipitation of the western area has increased and that of the eastern area has decreased.The spring precipitation of the whole province has consistently increased. The summer precipitation of the whole province has almost consistently decreased.The winter precipitation of the southwest area has decreased and other area has increased.

     

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