Spatial Dynamics of Tea Plant Habitat Suitability in China under Global Warming Conditions

Under the background of ongoing global climate warming, tea trees are highly sensitive to climate variability, and their suitable habitat patterns may undergo significant changes. Based on 376 occurrence records of Camellia sinensis obtained from GBIF and 18 climatic, geological, and soil-related environmental factors, this study employed the Random Forest (RF) model to simulate and predict the suitability of tea tree habitats across China under current and future climate scenarios (SSP1_2.6, SSP3_7.0, and SSP5_8.5). The results revealed that: (1) the model exhibited high accuracy (AUC = 0.91), with mean annual precipitation, temperature variability, soil thickness, and deep phosphorus and potassium content being the dominant factors; (2) currently, tea tree suitability decreases from southeast to northwest, with high and moderately high suitability zones accounting for over 22.8%, and the four major tea regions mainly characterized by high-grade suitability; (3) under future scenarios, the suitable habitat shifts northward overall, with significant expansion of high and moderate suitability zones; (4) suitability increases markedly in the Jiangnan and Jiangbei tea regions, while the Southwest region remains stable with some edge expansion, and little change is observed in the South China region. This study provides theoretical support and spatial references for climate-adaptive optimization and sustainable development of tea-producing regions.