白学文, 尤红, 李智全. 2012年6.02云南漏报首场强降水过程分析[J]. 云南大学学报(自然科学版), 2013, 35(S1): 202-208. doi: 10.7540/j.ynu.20130117
引用本文: 白学文, 尤红, 李智全. 2012年6.02云南漏报首场强降水过程分析[J]. 云南大学学报(自然科学版), 2013, 35(S1): 202-208. doi: 10.7540/j.ynu.20130117

2012年6.02云南漏报首场强降水过程分析

  • 摘要: null

     

    Abstract: A strong precipitation and cooling process happened at central and south of Yunnan on 2nd June,2012.There were 77 stations daily precipitation over 25mm and 15 stations daily precipitation greater than 50mm in Yuxi city.The precipitation above heavy rain appeared in whole city,biggest daily precipitation which was 123.5mm,happened at Yuanjiang Qinlong factory among them.But forecasters empirical extrapolation and EC numerical forecast products had not forecasted this process.Based on reanalysis data,radar data satellite images and NCEP data,this strong precipitation process had been diagnosed and analyzed,missing report was investigated as well.The results showed that Humidity vertical distribution was different in the rainstorm area.The vertical distribution feature was high humidity was at low layer and low humidity was at higher layer,which was beneficial to thunderstorm and other severe convective weather.Humidity in Kunming was high all of the level.The sheer line and cold air moved southward suddenly,so confluence of cold and warm air happened.The cold air triggered strong mesoscale convective system which brought about this strong rainfall.The results which caused missing forecast included the situation of the sheer line moving southward was not obvious on upper air chart,the newest aging numerical forecast products of model WRF had not been paid attention to enough and numerical forecast products were depended on too much.

     

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