严小冬, 宋燕, 吴战平, 田鹏举. 基于GEV干旱指数的贵州春旱时空变化及预测模型探析[J]. 云南大学学报(自然科学版), 2016, 38(2): 256-266. doi: 10.7540/j.ynu.20150565
引用本文: 严小冬, 宋燕, 吴战平, 田鹏举. 基于GEV干旱指数的贵州春旱时空变化及预测模型探析[J]. 云南大学学报(自然科学版), 2016, 38(2): 256-266. doi: 10.7540/j.ynu.20150565
YAN Xiao-dong, SONG Yan, WU Zhan-ping, TIAN Peng-ju. A study on temporal and spatial variation and forecast model of spring drought in Guizhou Province based on GEV drought index[J]. Journal of Yunnan University: Natural Sciences Edition, 2016, 38(2): 256-266. DOI: 10.7540/j.ynu.20150565
Citation: YAN Xiao-dong, SONG Yan, WU Zhan-ping, TIAN Peng-ju. A study on temporal and spatial variation and forecast model of spring drought in Guizhou Province based on GEV drought index[J]. Journal of Yunnan University: Natural Sciences Edition, 2016, 38(2): 256-266. DOI: 10.7540/j.ynu.20150565

基于GEV干旱指数的贵州春旱时空变化及预测模型探析

A study on temporal and spatial variation and forecast model of spring drought in Guizhou Province based on GEV drought index

  • 摘要: 利用贵州省81站1963—2015年3—5月降水量和1962—2014年逐月144项环流特征量,基于广义极值分布GEV(Generalized Extreme Value,缩写GEV)干旱指数,采用Mann-kendall(MK)、Morlet小波等方法对贵州春旱时空变化进行分析.分析表明:降水的位置参数较好地表现出贵州春季降水由西部向东部递增的空间分布特征,尺度参数也较好地体现贵州春季降水较少的西北部和较多的东部区域分布特征,降水年际变化大,形状参数反映了贵州春季降水服从Weibull分布;GEV干旱指数及其等级划分能较好地表征贵州春旱实况,且在持续性干旱过程中尽量应用季尺度GEV干旱指数;贵州春旱具有4~6a、8~10a和24~28a的振荡周期;贵州重春旱发生频率介于6%~15%之间,重春旱年份主要有1979、1986、1987、1988、1991年和2011年.同时,统计分析表明前期南方涛动、西太平洋副高西伸脊点和印缅槽等指数与贵州春旱趋势有一定的相关性,并在此基础上以1963—2007年作为样本建立贵州春旱预测模型,预测模型经2008—2015年为期8年的独立试报,预测效果令人满意.

     

    Abstract: Based on the data of MAM (March,April,and May) precipitation from 1963 to 2015 and monthly 144 circulation characteristics from 1962 to 2014 in 81 meteorological stations,as well as the GEV drought index,we have applied the methods of Mann-Kendall(MK)and Morlet wavelet to analyze temporal and spatial variation of spring drought and building up one drought forecast model for Guizhou province.The results demonstrate that the position parameter can properly show the spatial characteristic of spring precipitation in Guizhou gradually growing from west to east,and the scale parameter can well indicate rainless northwest areas and the rainy east areas,and the shape parameters reflecte the Weibull uniform distribution of spring precipitation in Guizhou.We've also found that the GEV drought index and its grade division can well describe actual distribution of the spring drought in Guizhou,and it is better to use seasonal GEV drought index in continuous drought process.In addition,there exists the oscillation cycles of 4—6,8—10,24—28 years of spring drought in Guizhou,and the frequency of serious spring drought is during 6%—15%.The serious spring drought occurred in 1979,1986,1987,1988,1991 and 2011 respectively.Moreover,statistical analysis shows that preceding south oscillation,the west ridge and intensity of northwest Pacific subtropical high,and India-Myanmar trough correlate well with the trend of Guizhou spring drought to some extent.By applying forecast signals and taking a period from 1963 to 2007 as a swatch,a short-term climatic forecast model of spring drought in Guizhou has been established.With this model,an independent 8-year test forecast of 2008—2015 has been made and the results are satisfactory.

     

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