Abstract:
Based on the current distribution of Toona ciliata Roem. var. ciliate in Yunnan Province,19 bioclimate factors and the maximum entropy(MaxEnt),the potential distribution area in Yunnan and China under the current and future (2050s,2070s) climatic situation was predicted.The mean training AUC and testing AUC of MaxEnt of the species were 0.820 and 0.826,meaning the prediction distribution was credible.Monthly mean diurnal temperature range,mean temperature of the coldest quarter,CV of precipitation,mean temperature of the driest quarter,precipitation of the driest quarter,precipitation of the warmest quarter,isothermality,mean temperature of the wettest quarter,mean temperature of the warmest quarter,mean temperature of the coldest month,standard deviation of seasonal temperature change,precipitation of the wettest month,annual mean temperature are mutual influence on the suitable habitats of T. ciliata Roem. var. ciliate.The suitable habitats,especially the moderately and highly suitable regions are highly consistent with the real distribution area,showing practical guiding significance to the development of planting forestry of T. ciliata Roem. var. ciliate in Yunnan Province.In China,the suitable habitats are larger,but the moderately and highly suitable regions are highly identical to the real distribution area,which could be used as the reference to the species protection and introduction.Furthermore,the potential habitats and areas in future will get a bit larger which illustrates that the globe warming is favorable for the development and reproduction of T. ciliata Roem. var. ciliate,or at least,has no adverse effect.