张思豆, 张腾飞, 曹杰. 云南2次西行台风暴雨过程数值模拟和诊断分析[J]. 云南大学学报(自然科学版), 2017, 39(6): 1012-1022. doi: 10.7540/j.ynu.20170182
引用本文: 张思豆, 张腾飞, 曹杰. 云南2次西行台风暴雨过程数值模拟和诊断分析[J]. 云南大学学报(自然科学版), 2017, 39(6): 1012-1022. doi: 10.7540/j.ynu.20170182
ZHANG Si-dou, ZHANG Teng-fei, CAO Jie. A numerical simulation and diagnostic analysis of two westward typhoon rainstorm process in Yunnan[J]. Journal of Yunnan University: Natural Sciences Edition, 2017, 39(6): 1012-1022. DOI: 10.7540/j.ynu.20170182
Citation: ZHANG Si-dou, ZHANG Teng-fei, CAO Jie. A numerical simulation and diagnostic analysis of two westward typhoon rainstorm process in Yunnan[J]. Journal of Yunnan University: Natural Sciences Edition, 2017, 39(6): 1012-1022. DOI: 10.7540/j.ynu.20170182

云南2次西行台风暴雨过程数值模拟和诊断分析

A numerical simulation and diagnostic analysis of two westward typhoon rainstorm process in Yunnan

  • 摘要: 利用NCEP再分析资料和中尺度数值预报模式(WRF模式),采用三重嵌套网格对2014年7月20日08:0021日08:00 与9月17日08:0018日08:00的2次西行台风影响云南暴雨过程进行数值模拟试验,并对试验结果进行诊断对比分析.结果表明:WRF模式客观地模拟出了西行台风暴雨过程的强降水落区、强度和基本特征,但当高空无冷空气影响热带低压时暴雨中心与低压中心吻合,冷空气入侵热带低压外围时暴雨中心偏离热带低压中心.同时,较好地模拟出西行台风影响系统的移动方向和影响区域,由于没有考虑地形作用,模拟的影响系统和降水落区比实况位置稍偏西偏北和强度偏弱,但总体上高空高度场、温度场和流场分布也与实况基本一致.另外,WRF模式对相对湿度、涡度、垂直速度的模拟能很好地指示强降水发生的深厚高湿环境条件、正涡管效应和强烈深厚上升运动条件,模拟结果对强降水落区和发生时间有非常好的指示性.

     

    Abstract: By NCEP reanalysis data and Mesoscale Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF model),a series of numerical simulation experiments of two rainstorm processes with westward typhoon influencing Yunnan was carried out by three-nested grid model on 20th 8:0021st 8:00,July 2014,and on 17th 8:0018th 8:00,September 2014,and experiment results had been diagnosed contrastively.The results show that WRF model can impersonally simulate their heavy precipitation area,intensity and basic characteristics of westward typhoon rainstorm processes,but rainstorm center is consistent with the tropical depression center without upper cold air influencing and rainstorm center is departure from the tropical depression center when tropical depression periphery is intruded by cold air.At the same time it can preferably simulate westward typhoon's moving direction and influencing area.But without consideration of terrain effect,simulative influencing system and precipitation areas slightly move towards west and north than actual situation and simulative intensity is also weaker.However,as a whole the simulative height,temperature and circulation pattern are almost the same with the actual situations.In addition the WRF simulation results of relative humidity,velocity and vertical speed can precisely indicate high-humidity environmental condition,positive vortex tube effect and strong profound ascending motion condition during heavy precipitation,which presents a good indication for the heavy precipitation area and occurrence time.

     

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