李智蓉, 付虹, 张中旭. 鲁甸6.5级地震前昭通地震台形变异常与降雨关系分析*[J]. 云南大学学报(自然科学版), 2018, 40(5): 919-928. doi: 10.7540/j.ynu.20170577
引用本文: 李智蓉, 付虹, 张中旭. 鲁甸6.5级地震前昭通地震台形变异常与降雨关系分析*[J]. 云南大学学报(自然科学版), 2018, 40(5): 919-928. doi: 10.7540/j.ynu.20170577
LI Zhi-rong, FU Hong, ZHANG Zhong-xu. Analysis on the relationship between deformation anomaly and rainfall in Zhaotong station before Ludian 6.5 earthquake[J]. Journal of Yunnan University: Natural Sciences Edition, 2018, 40(5): 919-928. DOI: 10.7540/j.ynu.20170577
Citation: LI Zhi-rong, FU Hong, ZHANG Zhong-xu. Analysis on the relationship between deformation anomaly and rainfall in Zhaotong station before Ludian 6.5 earthquake[J]. Journal of Yunnan University: Natural Sciences Edition, 2018, 40(5): 919-928. DOI: 10.7540/j.ynu.20170577

鲁甸6.5级地震前昭通地震台形变异常与降雨关系分析*

Analysis on the relationship between deformation anomaly and rainfall in Zhaotong station before Ludian 6.5 earthquake

  • 摘要: 2014年8月3日鲁甸6.5级地震前,距离震中不到50km的昭通地震台多个测项出现了短临的“异常”变化,期间伴随连续降雨事件.如何排除降雨影响,提取震前的有效信息至关重要.文中利用昭通台倾斜、应变类观测数据以及辅助气象观测数据,通过考虑到时间滞后的数学回归模型方法,定量分析降雨对昭通台的影响程度,分析结果表明,昭通台形变测项与降雨相关性较高,且震前短临形变异常变化在回归线附近,应为降雨影响.另外,在收集昭通台周边观测环境变化(城建施工等)的基础上,给出降雨对昭通台影响的过程.

     

    Abstract: August 3,2014 before the Ludian 6.5 earthquake,multiple deformation measurement items witnessed short “abnormal” changes from the epicenter of less than 50 km Zhaotong seismic station,and accompanied by continuous rainfall during the event.How to remove the effects of rainfall,it is important to extract effective information before the earthquake.In this paper,using Zhaotong station tilt,strain observation data and auxiliary meteorological observation data,by taking into account the time lag of the mathematical regression model method,we quantitatively analyze the impact of rainfall on Zhaotong Station.The results show that the correlation between the measured items and the rainfall is evident and the anomaly of short pre-earthquake is near the regression line,which could be affected by rainfall.In addition,on the basis of collecting the changes of observation environment (urban construction,etc.) around Zhaotong station,the process of influencing Zhaotong station has been explored

     

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