李坤, 赵俊三, 林伊琳, 陈轲, 毕瑞. 基于RF和SVM模型的东川泥石流易发性评价研究[J]. 云南大学学报(自然科学版), 2022, 44(1): 107-115. doi: 10.7540/j.ynu.20210107
引用本文: 李坤, 赵俊三, 林伊琳, 陈轲, 毕瑞. 基于RF和SVM模型的东川泥石流易发性评价研究[J]. 云南大学学报(自然科学版), 2022, 44(1): 107-115. doi: 10.7540/j.ynu.20210107
LI Kun, ZHAO Jun-san, LIN Yi-lin, CHEN Ke, BI Rui. Assessment of debris flow susceptibility in Dongchuan based on RF and SVM models[J]. Journal of Yunnan University: Natural Sciences Edition, 2022, 44(1): 107-115. DOI: 10.7540/j.ynu.20210107
Citation: LI Kun, ZHAO Jun-san, LIN Yi-lin, CHEN Ke, BI Rui. Assessment of debris flow susceptibility in Dongchuan based on RF and SVM models[J]. Journal of Yunnan University: Natural Sciences Edition, 2022, 44(1): 107-115. DOI: 10.7540/j.ynu.20210107

基于RF和SVM模型的东川泥石流易发性评价研究

Assessment of debris flow susceptibility in Dongchuan based on RF and SVM models

  • 摘要: 泥石流具有很大的破坏力,尤其是在山区,严重威胁着人民的生命财产安全,因此研究山区泥石流易发性评价对国土空间规划、防灾减灾及制定合理的泥石流防治措施等具有重要意义. 以泥石流多发地东川区为例,采用随机森林(RF)、支持向量机(SVM)两种机器学习算法,以流域单元作为评价单元,在识别泥石流点的基础上,选取15个指标因子构建山区泥石流易发性评价模型,评价各指标因子的权重,并对比分析了模型的预测效果. 结果表明,两种机器学习算法结合流域单元建立的山区泥石流易发性评价模型均具有很好的准确性和稳定性,但随机森林(RF)模型的准确度ACC值和ROC曲线下面积AUC值分别达到0.8333和0.9299,优于支持向量机(SVM)模型的ACC值和AUC值的0.7222和0.8515,随机森林(RF)模型更适用于山区泥石流易发性评价研究.

     

    Abstract: Debris flow has great destructive power, especially in mountainous areas, which seriously threatens the safety of human life and property. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the susceptibility assessment of debris flow in mountainous areas for spatial planning of national land, disaster prevention and mitigation, and formulating reasonable measures to prevent and control debris flow. Taking the region of Dongchuan where debris-flows frequently occur as an example, this paper adopts two machine learning algorithms of random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM), and takes the watershed unit as the assessment unit. Based on the identification of debris flow points, 15 index factors are selected to build the assessment model of debris flow susceptibility in mountainous areas, the weight of each inducing factor is evaluated, and the prediction effect of the model is compared and analyzed. The results show that the two machine learning algorithms combined with watershed units have good accuracy and stability, but the ACC and the AUC values of random forest (RF) model are 0.8333 and 0.9299, which are better than those of support vector machine (SVM) model, namely 0.7222 and 0.8515. The random forest (RF) model is more suitable for the assessment of debris flow susceptibility in mountainous regions.

     

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