Abstract:
Panzhihua City is rich in mineral resources, and has a long mining history, high intensity of mining activities, complex geological structures, fragile ecological environment, and frequent mine geological disasters. Based on the remote sensing monitoring and investigation data of the mineral development environment in the north reaches of the three rivers (Nujiang River, Langcangjiang River and Jinshajiang River) in 2019, the relationship between the development law and influencing factors of mine geological disasters are analyzed. Meanwhile, seven evaluation factors are selected, such as slope, engineering geological petrofabric, the distance from the faults, precipitation, vegetation coverage, the distance from the river, and the distance from the mining activities. Furthermore, with the help of ArcGIS software platform, the susceptibility evaluation of mine geological disasters in Panzhihua City is carried out by using the deterministic coefficient Certainty Factor (CF), information quantity model and the coupling model of CF and information quantity. The results show that engineering geological rock group, vegetation coverage, and distance from mining areas are the controlling factors affecting the distribution of geological disasters. After Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve test, the Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of the coupling model of CF and information quantity is as high as 0.909, indicating that the evaluation accuracy of the coupling model is higher than that of the single model, and the accuracy is as follows: coupling model > information quantity model > deterministic coefficient model. The vulnerability zones of the coupling model are extremely high (5.24%), high (11.67%), medium (41.66%) and low (41.43%). Among them, the extremely high and high vulnerability zones are mainly distributed in coal mines, iron mines and granite mines with high mining activity intensity; and those zones are mainly located in Renhe District, Eastern District, Yanbian County and Miyi County.