高维多门限时间序列模型在西太平洋副高预报中的应用
The multi-threshold model of multidimensional time series andits application to prediction of the western Pacific subtropical high
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摘要: 将高维多门限时间序列模型应用于西太平洋副高演化的分析和预报中.结果表明分段后对西太平洋副热带高压的5个特征量的分析预报及其与周围大气环流系统的相互关系较以前的研究结果更具体;所建立的描述西太平洋副热带高压5个特征量的时间序列模型对该5个特征量逐月气候偏差的拟合及外推预报均具有良好的模拟能力.对西太平洋副热带高压各特征量拟合及外推预报准确率分别达到,面积指数为79.2%和76.3%,强度指数为78.3%和80.6%,脊线位置为75.2%和75.0%,北界位置为79.4%和75.0%,西伸脊点为82.3%和81.9%.Abstract: The multi threshold model of multidimensional time series is introuded to analyze and forecast the evolution of the western Pacific subtropical high.Some clearer results are obtained.The time series model describing the five characters of the western Pacific subtropical high has the effective fitting and the effective forecasting ability.The fitting and the forecasting accuracies for the dimension index are 79.2% and 76.3%;78.3% and 80.6% for the intensity index;75.2% and 75.0% for the ridge location index;79.4% and 75.0% for the north boundary index;82.3% and 81.9% for the westward ridge spot index.
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