Abstract:
Using monthly surface temperature as external forcing,we have obtained the atmospheric circumfluence data from 1951~2000 by the 50a simulating integral data of NCAR CAM3T42 model.The set of common predictive factors,which is constituted of 40a simulating integral 500hPa height field in May and 124 stations May precipitation of Yunnan Province,has a good spatial coherence.The predictability of Yunnan's May precipitation may be studied by using this set.There are some key factors influencing Yunnan's May precipitation on the 500hPa height field in May of CAM3T42 model.The key factors mainly lie on the Mediterranean Sea,India Subcontinent,the West Pacific Ocean Warm Pool,the Northeast Pacific Ocean,the North of America,the South Indian Ocean,the South Pacific,the South Atlantic Ocean and so on.Using the common predictive factors set we can establish a set of predictive regression equations to forecast 124 stations May precipitation of Yunnan Province.The predictive results indicated that the coefficient of multiple correlations of 113 stations passed the 0.05 significant test,the ratio to whole province was approximately 91%.The independence prediction test results by 10a samples indicated that the value of coefficient multiple correlations had little decrease compared with that of non-independence prediction test.The research results indicated that there was better stability between the change of 500hPa height field in May of CAM3T42 model and 124 stations May precipitation of Yunnan Province.The CAMT42 model has forecasting ability to predict Yunnan's May precipitation.