高志鸿, 张合理, 陈峰, BakhtiyorovZulfiyor, 岳伟鹏, 赵晓恩. 气候变化背景下中亚跨境河流平原区水文变化特征:以楚河为例[J]. 云南大学学报(自然科学版), 2021, 43(4): 725-735. doi: 10.7540/j.ynu.20200548
引用本文: 高志鸿, 张合理, 陈峰, BakhtiyorovZulfiyor, 岳伟鹏, 赵晓恩. 气候变化背景下中亚跨境河流平原区水文变化特征:以楚河为例[J]. 云南大学学报(自然科学版), 2021, 43(4): 725-735. doi: 10.7540/j.ynu.20200548
GAO Zhi-hong, ZHANG He-li, CHEN Feng, Bakhtiyorov Zulfiyor, YUE Wei-peng, ZHAO Xiao-en. Hydrological variation of the trans-boundary river plain area under climate change in Central Asia: A case study for Chu River[J]. Journal of Yunnan University: Natural Sciences Edition, 2021, 43(4): 725-735. DOI: 10.7540/j.ynu.20200548
Citation: GAO Zhi-hong, ZHANG He-li, CHEN Feng, Bakhtiyorov Zulfiyor, YUE Wei-peng, ZHAO Xiao-en. Hydrological variation of the trans-boundary river plain area under climate change in Central Asia: A case study for Chu River[J]. Journal of Yunnan University: Natural Sciences Edition, 2021, 43(4): 725-735. DOI: 10.7540/j.ynu.20200548

气候变化背景下中亚跨境河流平原区水文变化特征:以楚河为例

Hydrological variation of the trans-boundary river plain area under climate change in Central Asia: A case study for Chu River

  • 摘要: 气候变化背景下,中亚各国围绕跨境河流水资源分配问题产生的纷争不断,因此开展中亚跨境河流水文变化研究,对上下游国家合理利用水资源有重要意义. 以中亚跨境河流楚河1936—2015年的径流气候数据为基础,揭示了楚河下游平原区径流变化特征及其与气候变化的响应. 结果显示:①楚河流域在过去80年间气候呈“暖湿”趋势,平原区径流呈显著年代际波动且集中在春、冬两季;②径流变化的第一主周期为26 a,第二主周期为12 a;③气温在1987年发生突变,径流在2001年发生了突变;④降水是楚河平原区径流的主要驱动因子,年径流和上年6月至当年5月降水呈显著正相关(r = 0.61,P < 0.01),高于与4—7月气温的最佳相关性(r = −0.37,P < 0.01). 但在气候变暖背景下,气温与径流负相关关系增强,气温升高导致蒸发量增加,可能是楚河下游平原区径流下降的重要原因.

     

    Abstract: There is a growing concern over the allocation of water resources in Central Asia under the background of climate change. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the hydrological changes of the trans-boundary rivers in Central Asia for the upstream and downstream countries to rationally make use of the water resources. The stream flow and its response to climate factors are shown in this paper, based on instrumental data from 1936 to 2015 in the Chu River Basin. The results show that: ① During those 80 years, a warming-wetting trend occurred in the Chu River Basin, and the stream flow in the plain area showed a significant inter-decadal fluctuation and was concentrated in winter and spring. ② Wavelet analysis showed a 26-year first main cycle and a 12-year second main cycle during those 80 years. ③ Temperature abrupt changes occurred in 1987, and the runoff abrupt changes occurred in 2001. ④ The annual stream flow was significantly positively correlated with the June-May precipitation(r = 0.61, P < 0.01), and correlation between the annual stream flow and the April-July temperature was relatively low(r = −0.37, P < 0.01). However, the correlation between April-July temperature and annual runoff increased under warming conditions, therefore, the increase of evaporation caused by climate warming may be an important reason for the decrease of stream flow in the plain area of the lower reaches of the Chu River.

     

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