近50年宣恩县雷暴气候特征分析

Climate characteristics analyses on thunderstorm in Xuan’en in past 50 years

  • 摘要: 为了深入了解宣恩县的雷暴气候特征,给雷电预测及防雷减灾提供科学依据,利用宣恩县1961—2010年共50 a的雷暴日资料,采用趋势系数、倾向率等统计方法分析了雷暴变化趋势等.统计分析得到宣恩县平均年雷暴日数为42.8 d;年均雷暴日呈逐年下降趋势,季节变化显著;初雷暴日表现为显著的推迟趋势,终雷暴日呈显著的提前趋势,雷暴期在缩短;通过对雷暴日与降水日作相关性分析得到二者的线性相关性较好,其中12月份相关性最好;利用小波分析得出雷暴日在1965—1970年及1998—2002年存在一个2 a的振荡周期,在1990—1998年存在一个4 a的振荡周期;最后通过Mann-Kendall突变检验,得出雷暴日突变年为1987、1991年.

     

    Abstract: In order to know the climate characteristics of thunderstorm in Xuan’en deeply and provide scientific basis for lightning protection and prediction,the data of the thunderstorm days in Xuan’en was used to analyze the change tendency of thunderstorm by the methods of trend coefficient,trend rate,et al.The average annual thunderstorm days in Xuan’en is 42.8 d.The annual thunderstorm days decreased year by year and the seasonal variation is distinct.The beginning of thunderstorm day is delayed and the final of thunderstorm day is ahead,the thunderstorm period shortened.There is a good linear correlation between the thunderstorm and precipitation through correlation analysis,which is the best in December.Through the wavelet analysis,we found that there is a 2 a oscillation cycle in 1965—1970 and 1998—2002,and there is a 4 a oscillation cycle between 1990—1998.In the end,we found that there is a mutation exists in 1987 and 1991 by the Mann-Kendall mutation testing.

     

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