李华宏, 王曼, 闵颖, 朱莉, 杨竹云. 昆明市雨季短时强降水特征分析及预报研究[J]. 云南大学学报(自然科学版), 2019, 41(3): 518-525. doi: 10.7540/j.ynu.20180367
引用本文: 李华宏, 王曼, 闵颖, 朱莉, 杨竹云. 昆明市雨季短时强降水特征分析及预报研究[J]. 云南大学学报(自然科学版), 2019, 41(3): 518-525. doi: 10.7540/j.ynu.20180367
LI Hua-hong, WANG Man, MIN Ying, ZHU Li, YANG Zhu-yun. The analysis and forecast of short-time heavy rainfall in rainy season in Kunming[J]. Journal of Yunnan University: Natural Sciences Edition, 2019, 41(3): 518-525. DOI: 10.7540/j.ynu.20180367
Citation: LI Hua-hong, WANG Man, MIN Ying, ZHU Li, YANG Zhu-yun. The analysis and forecast of short-time heavy rainfall in rainy season in Kunming[J]. Journal of Yunnan University: Natural Sciences Edition, 2019, 41(3): 518-525. DOI: 10.7540/j.ynu.20180367

昆明市雨季短时强降水特征分析及预报研究

The analysis and forecast of short-time heavy rainfall in rainy season in Kunming

  • 摘要: 利用1981—2015年昆明市逐时降水观测及短时强降水个例期间的探空、雷达、地面观测等资料,分析了昆明市雨季短时强降水时间分布、关键影响系统、物理量及雷达观测特征,尝试寻找该类天气的预报着眼点. 结果表明:①昆明短时强降水天气具有明显的日内变化特征. 短时强降水主要出现在19:00—次日05:00, 并在次日02:00达到峰值. ②地面辐合线和700 hPa切变线是昆明出现短时强降水的关键影响系统,当500 hPa有低压槽或高压间辐合区配合时则更有利于昆明出现短时强降水. ③从物理量指标看, 700 hPa比湿大于10.0 g·kg−1、温度露点差≤3℃、假相当温度≥75℃和沙氏指数<0.1是昆明站出现短时强降水天气的有利条件. ④当雷达观测图上出现积云、块状回波,回波反射率因子强度最大值达40~45 dBz且大值区质心较低,回波顶高小于8 km,对应的径向速度图出现中尺度辐合或低空急流特征时,应该考虑发布短时强降水预警.

     

    Abstract: Based on the data of hourly rainfall, sounding, radar and ground observation of short-time heavy rainfall cases that occurred in Kunming during 1981—2015, the temporal distribution, critical influencing systems, physical quantity and radar observation characteristics of short-time heavy rainfall in rainy season were analyzed. The results indicated that the short-time heavy rainfall in Kunming has a distinct hourly change. A special period from 19:00 to 05:00 the next morning witnesses the continual short-time heavy rainfall, with its peak at 02:00. The convergence line on the ground and the shear line on 700 hPa are the key influencing systems of short-time heavy rainfall in Kunming. When 500 hPa was accompanied by the low pressure trough or high pressure convergence zone, the synoptic situation would easily lead to the short-time heavy rainfall in Kunming. These physical conditions are most conducive to the short-time heavy rainfall: on 700 hPa, the specific humidity greater than 10.0 g·kg−1, the dew-point spread less than 3 degrees centigrade, the pseudo-equivalent temperature equal to 75 degrees centigrade and the SI index less than 0.1. On the other hand, the following radar observation features are the early warning index of short-time heavy rainfall: they are the cumulus and massive radar echo with 40—45 dBz maximum value, the lower center and top height less than 8 km, the corresponding radial velocity with meso-scale convergence or low altitude jet characteristics.

     

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