杨竹云, 李华宏, 胡娟, 许彦艳, 许迎杰, 王曼. 昭通市地质灾害特征及气象风险预警模型研究[J]. 云南大学学报(自然科学版), 2019, 41(4): 753-764. doi: 10.7540/j.ynu.20180668
引用本文: 杨竹云, 李华宏, 胡娟, 许彦艳, 许迎杰, 王曼. 昭通市地质灾害特征及气象风险预警模型研究[J]. 云南大学学报(自然科学版), 2019, 41(4): 753-764. doi: 10.7540/j.ynu.20180668
YANG Zhu-yun, LI Hua-hong, HU Juan, XU Yan-yan, XU Ying-jie, WANG Man. Research on features of geological hazard and meteorological risk early−warning model in Zhaotong[J]. Journal of Yunnan University: Natural Sciences Edition, 2019, 41(4): 753-764. DOI: 10.7540/j.ynu.20180668
Citation: YANG Zhu-yun, LI Hua-hong, HU Juan, XU Yan-yan, XU Ying-jie, WANG Man. Research on features of geological hazard and meteorological risk early−warning model in Zhaotong[J]. Journal of Yunnan University: Natural Sciences Edition, 2019, 41(4): 753-764. DOI: 10.7540/j.ynu.20180668

昭通市地质灾害特征及气象风险预警模型研究

Research on features of geological hazard and meteorological risk early−warning model in Zhaotong

  • 摘要: 云南省昭通市是长江上游地质灾害最严重的地区之一。通过研究利用Z指数、主成分分析和地质灾害前期有效降水量分析等方法,对历史地质灾害样本、同期区域站和国家站逐12 h、逐日降水资料等进行了分析研究。结果表明:昭通市境内地质灾害隐患点众多,以滑坡为主,大中型地质灾害也时有发生,其中95%以上的地质灾害发生在雨季,峰值在8月,与昭通市干湿季节相对应;其降水型地质灾害与灾害临近12 h降水量、当天降水强度、前3 d和前12 d累积降水量及降水强度等降水因子密切相关。因此,综合考虑短时、短期和中长期的累积降水效应,并引入国土部门的地质灾害区划成果建立了昭通市降水型地质灾害气象风险预警模型,选取2018年的地质灾害实例对模型进行检验,发现此模型对昭通雨季地质灾害有较好的预警指示作用。

     

    Abstract: Zhaotong City of Yunnan Province is one of the regions most seriously affected by geological disasters in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. In this study, Z index, principal component analysis and effective precipitation analysis during the early stage of geological hazards were used to analyze the historical geological hazards, 12−hour and daily precipitation data of the regional and national stations in the duration of these hazard events. The results show that there are many potential geological hazards in Zhaotong, mainly landslides; and large and medium−sized geological disasters also occur. More than 95% of the geological disasters occur in the rainy season, with a summit in August, which corresponds to the change of the dry and wet seasons in Zhaotong. The precipitation−type geological hazards are closely related to the precipitation factors, such as the precipitation till 12−hours before the disaster's approaching, the precipitation intensity on that day of the disaster, cumulative precipitation and precipitation intensity of the 3−days and 12−days before the coming of the geological disaster. Therefore, a meteorological risk early-warning model for precipitation−type geological hazards is established, based on the short−term, medium and long-term cumulative precipitation effect, and the geological disaster zoning results of the the Ministry of Land and Resources. Then, the geological hazards in Zhaotong in 2018 were selected to test the model, and it was found out that this model has a good early warning indication for the geological disasters in the rainy season in Zhaotong.

     

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