Abstract:
Five thousand one hundred and twenty-one radar volume-scanning data from 2014 to 2019 are collected, and the method of “projection area” is used to measure cloud amount for analysis and statistics in Pu’er City. The change of echo with the intensity that respectively achieves 25—45 dBz is statistically analyzed, at the 0 ℃, −10 ℃, and −20 ℃ layer heights within 30 km radii of 16 certain-locations, with 5 dBz as the step. It is suggested that the continuous variation characteristics of 35 dBz or 40 dBz echo on 0 ℃ or −10 ℃ layer should be the focus of lightning proximity prediction. Combined with the particularity of high mountain radars, considering the success rate, missing rate and false alarm rate, it is further clarified that the feature of 40 dBz echo appearing at the 0 ℃ height and keeping continuous above two consecutive volume scans is a better condition for approaching lightning prediction in Pu’er area. It is verified that the detection probability is 62%, the success rate is 50.8%, and the average time advance of proximity forecast is 25 minutes, when the needed condition is reached. This characteristic should play a certain role in the analysis of thunderstorm cloud echo and the early warning of lightning approaching.