蒋锋, 杨嘉伟. 基于多目标优化集成学习的短期太阳辐射预测[J]. 云南大学学报(自然科学版), 2021, 43(3): 451-461. doi: 10.7540/j.ynu.20190708
引用本文: 蒋锋, 杨嘉伟. 基于多目标优化集成学习的短期太阳辐射预测[J]. 云南大学学报(自然科学版), 2021, 43(3): 451-461. doi: 10.7540/j.ynu.20190708
JIANG Feng, YANG Jia-wei. Short-term solar radiation forecast based on ensemble learning of multi-objective optimization[J]. Journal of Yunnan University: Natural Sciences Edition, 2021, 43(3): 451-461. DOI: 10.7540/j.ynu.20190708
Citation: JIANG Feng, YANG Jia-wei. Short-term solar radiation forecast based on ensemble learning of multi-objective optimization[J]. Journal of Yunnan University: Natural Sciences Edition, 2021, 43(3): 451-461. DOI: 10.7540/j.ynu.20190708

基于多目标优化集成学习的短期太阳辐射预测

Short-term solar radiation forecast based on ensemble learning of multi-objective optimization

  • 摘要: 准确预测太阳辐射对于高效利用光伏能源具有重要意义,为提高太阳辐射预测精度,提出一种新的基于水平精度和方向精度的多目标优化集成学习框架. 首先,利用奇异谱分析(Singular Spectrum Analysis, SSA)方法将太阳辐射数据分解成一系列信号组;然后,运用带精英策略的非支配排序遗传算法(Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm, NSGAII)优化的最小二乘支持向量机(Least Squares Support Vector Machine, LSSVM)对每个分量信号进行预测;接着,用聚类方法将各分量信号进行样本聚类;最后,运用NSGAII-LSSVM方法分别对样本结果进行集成得到预测结果. 以意大利2017年太阳辐射数据作为仿真数据,将该模型与LSSVM、单目标优化的集成学习模型等8个基准模型进行对比. 研究结果表明,所提出的多目标优化集成学习框架具有更好的优越性,在方向精度、水平精度和稳健性上均具有很好的效果.

     

    Abstract: Accurate prediction of solar radiation is essential for the efficient use of photovoltaic energy. In this paper, a new ensemble learning model of multi-objective optimization is proposed to improve the performance of solar radiation prediction and the objectives are horizontal and directional accuracy. Firstly, the data of solar radiation is decomposed into a series of signal sets by Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). Then, the Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LSSVM) optimized by Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGAII) is used to predict each component signal. Moreover, clustering method is used to cluster the samples of each component signal. Finally, the NSGAII-LSSVM method is used to ensemble the sample results to get the final prediction value. In the paper the solar radiation data of Italy 2017 is used to verify the performance of the hybrid model. The results of the comparison with eight benchmark models show that the hybrid model has better performance and smaller error values than other benchmark models. In conclusion, the proposed ensemble learning model of multi-objective optimization is considerably effective and robust for the short-term solar radiation forecast.

     

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