小波分析方法在定点形变日常跟踪中的应用研究

Application of wavelet analysis method in daily tracking of fixed-point deformation

  • 摘要: 将小波分析方法运用于定点形变观测资料数据处理中,首先通过对云南省2008—2018年6个连续性较好、数据可靠的台站观测资料的水管倾斜、洞体应变数据进行全时空扫描,提取频率异常;然后统计分析异常出现与云南地区MS≥5.0级地震时空对应情况,以期得出小波分析在日常预报中的参考价值. 研究结果表明,利用小波分析方法提取的多台同步异常映震效果较好,异常出现后6个月内云南地区5级以上地震发震占比达71%,且6级以上地震前均能观测到频率同步异常. 该结果表明小波分析法提取的异常,可以尝试运用于日常跟踪中对未来地震发震时间及震级的判定.

     

    Abstract: In this paper, the wavelet analysis method was applied to the data processing of fixed-point deformation observation data. Frequency anomalies were extracted through the spatiotemporal scanning of water pipe inclination and cave strain data at 6 stations with good continuity of observation data and reliable data in Yunnan Province from 2008 to 2018. Statistical analysis of the spatiotemporal correspondence between the anomalies and MS≥5 earthquakes in Yunnan area was put forward, the purpose of which is to obtain some reference value of wavelet analysis in daily forecasting. The research results showed that the reflecting effect of multiple synchronous anomalies extracted by wavelet analysis was fairly good, and within 6 months after the occurrence of the anomaly, the earthquake occurrence rate of MS≥5 earthquakes in Yunnan area reached 71%. Furthermore, frequency synchronization anomalies could be observed before the MS≥6 earthquakes. Meanwhile, it was found out that the anomalies extracted by wavelet analysis could be used in daily tracking to determine the time and magnitude of future earthquakes.

     

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