徐潇悦, 殷淑燕, 王洋. 明代江淮流域人口大量死亡事件与气候耦合关系[J]. 云南大学学报(自然科学版), 2021, 43(2): 306-314. doi: 10.7540/j.ynu.20200196
引用本文: 徐潇悦, 殷淑燕, 王洋. 明代江淮流域人口大量死亡事件与气候耦合关系[J]. 云南大学学报(自然科学版), 2021, 43(2): 306-314. doi: 10.7540/j.ynu.20200196
XU Xiao-yue, YIN Shu-yan, WANG Yang. Coupling relationship between mass-death events and climate in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin in the Ming Dynasty[J]. Journal of Yunnan University: Natural Sciences Edition, 2021, 43(2): 306-314. DOI: 10.7540/j.ynu.20200196
Citation: XU Xiao-yue, YIN Shu-yan, WANG Yang. Coupling relationship between mass-death events and climate in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin in the Ming Dynasty[J]. Journal of Yunnan University: Natural Sciences Edition, 2021, 43(2): 306-314. DOI: 10.7540/j.ynu.20200196

明代江淮流域人口大量死亡事件与气候耦合关系

Coupling relationship between mass-death events and climate in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin in the Ming Dynasty

  • 摘要: 从历史文献中提取明代(1368—1644年)江淮流域人口大量死亡事件,构建10 a尺度的事件频次、县次和广度序列,复原了人口大量死亡事件的时空及致灾因子特征,并分析事件与气候的耦合关系。结果表明:①明代江淮流域人口大量死亡事件共847次,自然灾害是影响人口大量死亡事件的主要因素且以旱灾、疫灾、水灾和潮灾为主;②人口大量死亡事件具有显著的阶段性和间歇式爆发特征,呈少—多—少—多的循环交替;③空间上表现为人口大量死亡事件集中在长三角地区,呈现阶梯状分布;④事件致灾因子中单因子占比最多(达83.8%),以旱灾、水灾、潮灾、疫灾和战乱为主。回归分析显示,气候冷暖与人口大量死亡事件呈显著负相关关系,气候冷暖可以解释人口大量死亡事件的25.4%~35.1%;气候干湿与人口大量死亡事件呈显著负相关关系,气候干湿变化可以解释人口大量死亡事件的10.5%~12.6%。明代气候变化在人口大量死亡事件上占据重要地位,气候变化进一步加剧了江淮流域人口大量死亡事件的程度。

     

    Abstract: A large number of mass-death events in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin in the Ming Dynasty (1368—1644) were extracted from historical documents; a 10a-scale sequence of event frequencies, counties and breadths was constructed; the characteristics of time and space and hazard factors of the large number of death events were restored; and the coupling relationship between events and climate was analyzed. The results show that: ① There happened a total of 847 mass-death events in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin in the Ming Dynasty. Natural disasters, such as droughts, epidemics, floods and tides, were the main factors causing the mass deaths of the population. ② Mass-death events of the population showed significant phased and intermittent outbreak characteristics, with a cycle of fewer-more-fewer-more. ③ Spatially, a large number of deaths of the population were concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, showing a ladder-like distribution. ④ Single factors accounted for the largest proportion (83.8%) of the disaster-causing factors of the mass-death events, among which droughts, floods, tides, epidemics and wars were the main ones. Regression analysis shows that there was a significant negative correlation between climate coldness and warmth and mass-death events. Cold and warm climate could explain 25.4%−35.1% of the large number of deaths. Meanwhile, dry and wet climate also had a significant negative correlation with mass-death events. Dry and wet climate could explain 10.5%−12.6% of the mass deaths of the population. Therefore, it can be said that climate change in the Ming Dynasty played an important role in the mass-death events, which further aggravated the mass-death events in the Yangtze-Huaihe Basin.

     

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