Abstract:
Sixty hail processes were selected in Guizhou Province from 2018 to 2021. According to 4 conceptual models of hail in Guizhou Province—the types of northwest airflow, upper trough, front hail and overhead thunderstorm—the characteristics of the 60 hail processes were tested and their applicability was analyzed based on the collapse theory and the
V-3
θ diagram of MICAPS4. The results showed that: The characteristics of
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θ diagram were different before and after the hail processes of different circulation types. The
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θ diagram of the overhead thunderstorm type was the most typical, while the northwest airflow type was the least obvious. The four types of hail processes in Guizhou were mainly manifested as ultra-low temperatures, multiple
θ curve bendings, the whole layer rolling along, and the shape of
θsed and
θ* surrounding "bee waist". When these four features appear simultaneously on
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θ diagram, it was of certain significance to predict the occurrence of hail near the station and the downstream area. But at the same time, the false alarm ratio (FAR) was also high and it was unsuitable to use only
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θ diagram for hail prediction, for
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θ diagram had low temporal and spatial resolution like
T-LnP diagram. To a certain extent, when there were large scale circulations and meso-small scale systems conducive to hail falling,
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θ diagram could be used as an auxiliary analysis to increase the certainty of forecast.