一类具有牛−羊交叉感染及环境影响的布鲁氏菌病模型

A Brucellosis model with bovine-sheep cross infection and environmental impact

  • 摘要: 布鲁氏菌病是由革兰氏阴性球菌引起的一种人畜共患疾病. 基于感染牛−羊对人的直接感染和环境因素对人的间接感染,建立了一类 SIRWS_sI_sR_sS_cI_c 模型. 给出了模型的阈值 \Re _0 ,证明了 \Re _0 < 1 时无病平衡点的全局稳定性, \Re _0 > 1 时地方病平衡点的一致持久性. 根据内蒙古2016年至2018年布鲁氏菌病病例报告数据进行数值模拟并对其发展趋势进行预测. 最后对不同参数进行敏感性分析,结论表明对牛−羊进行隔离喂养和环境消杀可以一定程度上降低患病人数.

     

    Abstract: Brucellosis is a zoonotic disease caused by Gram-negative cocci. Based on the direct infection from cattle to sheep and the indirect infection from environmental factors to humans, a SIRWS_sI_sR_sS_cI_c model is established. The threshold value of the model was given and the stability of the disease-free equilibrium was proved when \Re _0 < 1 and the uniform persistence of the endemic equilibrium is proved when \Re _0 > 1 . Numerical simulation and prediction were conducted based on the data of Brucellosis case reports in Inner Mongolia from 2016 to 2018. Finally, sensitivity analysis of different parameters was conducted, and the conclusion showed that isolation feeding and environmental elimination of cattle and sheep could reduce the number of patients to a certain extent.

     

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