基于CF-PCCs模型的维西县滑坡致灾因子敏感性分析

Susceptibility of landslide disaster-causing factors based on CF-PCCs model in Weixi County, Yunnan Province, China

  • 摘要: 为了深入了解滑坡的成灾背景,减少灾害造成的生命财产损失,以云南省维西县为研究区,选取了高程、坡度、坡向、降水量、距河流距离、工程地质岩组、距断层距离、植被归一化指数(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI)和道路密度 9 项致灾因子,利用确定性系数(Certainty Factor,CF)−皮尔逊积矩相关系数(Pearson Product-moment Correlation Coefficient,PCCs)模型对致灾因子进行敏感性分析,并对分析结果的准确性进行了验证. 结果表明:①因子敏感性由高到低分别为坡向、河流、高程、降水量、断层、道路、坡度、工程地质岩组和NDVI;②敏感性最大的因子类别包括:高程为1 486~2 600 m,坡度为0°~20°,坡向为半阳坡,降水量为782~1178 mm,距河流距离为0~300 m,工程地质岩组为极软岩,距断层距离为2 400~3 200 m,NDVI为−0.169~0.039,道路密度为80~117 km/km2;③CF-PCCs模型精度高,数据分析结果可靠,该方法可为滑坡敏感性分析提供新思路.

     

    Abstract: In order to deeply understand the background of landslides and reduce the loss of life and property caused by landslide hazards, the research took Weixi County as a case study, and nine disaster-causing factors were selected, including elevations, slopes, aspects, rainfalls, distances from rivers, engineering geological petrofabric, distances from faults, NDVI and road densities. Then, the model of CF-PCCs was selected to analyze the susceptibility of disaster-causing factors, and the accuracy of the analysis results was verified. The results showed that: ① Factor susceptibilities ranged from high to low as follows: aspects, rivers, elevations, rainfalls, faults, roads, slopes, engineering geological petrofabric, and NDVI; ② The factor categories with the greatest susceptibility included: 1486−2600 m elevations, 0°−20° slopes, semi-sunny slope aspects, 782−1178 mm rainfalls, 0−300 m distances from rivers, extremely soft rock engineering geological petrofabric, 2400−3200 m distances from faults, −0.169−0.039 NDVI, and 80−117 road densities; ③ The CF-PCCs model had high accuracy and the data analysis results were reliable, which could provide new ideas for the susceptibility analysis of landslide hazards.

     

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