基于Copula模型的云南省地质灾害风险评估研究

Research on risk measurement of geological disasters in Yunnan Province based on the Copula model

  • 摘要: 云南省是中国地质灾害最严重的省份之一,地质灾害造成的损失主要包括直接经济损失和人员伤亡. 以云南省1991—2020年期间的地质灾害年度统计数据作为研究样本,利用地质灾害造成的直接经济损失和以因灾死亡人数转化的间接经济损失为边缘分布建立Copula函数模型,通过蒙特卡罗模拟计算云南省地质灾害的年度风险度量值,实现通过货币化的方式对云南省地质灾害风险水平进行量化. 最后,结合云南省地质灾害风险损失特点,应用计算出的风险度量值,提出了云南省地质灾害风险的分摊模式.

     

    Abstract: Yunnan Province is one of the most serious provinces in China in terms of geological hazards, and the losses caused by geological hazards mainly include direct economic losses and human casualties. Collecting the loss data of geological disasters during the years 1991−2020 in Yunnan Province and using the direct economic losses and indirect economic losses transformed by the tolls of disasters as the marginal distribution, the Copula model was built. Monte Carlo simulation method was used to calculate the annual risk measure of geohazards in Yunnan Province to quantify the risk level by monetization. Finally, combined with the characteristics of geological disaster risk loss in Yunnan Province and the annual risk measure, a risk-sharing mode for geological hazards in Yunnan Province was proposed.

     

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