1960―2020年淮河流域高温热浪时空变化特征

Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of heat waves in the Huaihe River Basin during 1960−2020

  • 摘要: 利用1960―2020年淮河流域40个气象站逐日最高气温资料,采用线性回归和Morlet小波分析等方法,统计分析了淮河流域高温热浪频次、持续时间和有效积温的时空变化特征. 结果表明:近61年淮河流域共发生了3 444次高温热浪事件,其中轻度热浪64.26%,中度热浪22.68%,重度热浪13.06%. 淮河流域高温热浪年均发生56.46次,年平均持续时间为6.79 d,年平均有效积温为11.04 ℃. 近61年来淮河流域各等级高温热浪具有显著的阶段性特征,20世纪60年代高温热浪最多最强、80年代中期以前呈减少(弱)趋势,此后呈增多(强)趋势. 61年来淮河流域高温热浪主周期变化为20 a,次周期为27 a和9 a. 高温热浪频次、持续时间和强度的空间分布特征相近,呈西多(强)东少(弱)趋势,流域西南部形成高值中心,东北部为低值中心. 从变化趋势来看,流域西部热浪频次、持续时间和强度呈减少(弱)趋势、东部呈增多(强)趋势.

     

    Abstract: Based on the daily maximum temperature data of 40 meteorological stations in the Huai River Basin from 1960 to 2020, the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of heat wave frequencies, duration days and effective accumulated temperatures in the Huaihe River Basin are analyzed by using the methods of linear regression and Morlet wavelet analysis. The results show that 3 444 heat waves occurred in the Huaihe River Basin in the 61 years from 1960 to 2020, including 64.26% mild heat waves, 22.68% moderate heat waves and 13.06% severe heat waves. High temperature heat waves occurred 56.46 times a year in the Huaihe River Basin, with an annual average duration of 6.79 days and an annual average effective accumulated temperature of 11.04 ℃. The total heat waves for different grades in the Huaihe River Basin showed marked periodic features during those 61 years. Heat waves were most and strongest in the 1960s, showed a decreasing (weakening) trend before the mid-1980s, and then turned to an increasing (strengthening) trend since mid-1980s. During those 61 years, the main variation cycle of heat waves was 20 years, and the minor variation cycles were respectively 27 years and 9 years in the Huaihe River Basin. The spatial distributions of heat wave frequencies, duration days and intensities were similar, which decreased (weakened) from west to east; the high value areas were concentrated in the southwest parts of the Huaihe River Basin; and the low value areas were concentrated in the northeast parts. From the perspective of the change trend, the frequencies, duration days and intensities of heat waves showed a decreasing (weakening) trend in the west of the basin, and an increasing (strengthening) trend in its east.

     

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