2023年孟加拉湾风暴影响下大理州久旱转雨天气过程分析

Diagnostic Analysis of the Process of Long Drought to Heavy Rainfall in Dali Prefecture Caused by Storm Over the Bengal in 2023

  • 摘要: 应用常规气象资料、NCEP再分析资料、多普勒天气雷达、卫星云图等资料,分析了2023年5月14~15日大理州久旱转雨天气过程. 结果表明:孟加拉湾风暴“穆查”和南支槽是这次久旱转雨过程的主要影响系统,高低空急流的耦合作用,促使大气垂直上升运动加强,增大降雨强度. 孟加拉湾风暴生成后,风暴云团云顶亮温低于−80 ℃;孟湾风暴以外围云系及登陆减弱的自身云团, 与南支槽云系合并东北移动影响大理州,产生持续性降雨. 在降雨强度相对较强时段,大理州上空云的强度不是很强,云顶亮温为−30~−20 ℃. 降雨过程前,中低层都有充足的水汽;大理州所处区域整层为上升运动区,低层辐合,高层辐散明显;700 hPa高度上大理州处于高能舌中. 在天气雷达基本反射率因子图上,主要为絮状混合型降水回波,强度未超过35 dBZ,回波顶高较低;径向速度图上,零速度线长时间呈“S”型分布;对流层中下层长时间持续西南急流及深厚暖平流是本次强降雨过程风廓线产品的主要特征.

     

    Abstract: In this paper, a process of long drought to heavy rainfall from May 14 to 15, 2023 in Dali Prefecture of Yunnan province is analyzed on basis of conventional observation data, NCEP reanalysis data, satellite cloud images and Doppler weather radar echo charts. The results show that the main weather system giving rise to the heavy rainfall process were the Bay of Bengal storm Mucha and the South Trough in 500 hPa. The coupling effect of upper- and lower-level jet streams enhances vertical updrafts and increases rainfall intensity. After the formation of the storm in the Bay of Bengal, the cloud-top temperature of the storms below −80 ℃. The peripheral cloud systems of the Bay of Bengal storm and its weakened remnant clouds after landfall merged with the southern branch trough cloud systems, then moved northeastward to affect Dali Prefecture, triggering persistent rainfall. During periods of relatively high rainfall intensity, the cloud intensity over Dali Prefecture was not very strong, with cloud-top brightness temperatures ranging from −30 to −20 ℃. During the heavy rainfall west Yunnan area located in water vapor transport with plentiful vapor in the middle-low level. And Dali region was in a ascending motion area through the whole atmosphere with obvious convergence in low level and divergence in upper-level. The region was also controlled by a high energy tongue in 700 hPa. The rainfall process was caused by flocculent mixed type precipitation echoes with the maximal intensity of their rada echoes being 35 dBZ and lower echo top heights. The radial velocity map of radar displayed that the zero velocity line has an S-shaped distribution held for a long time. The presence of long duration of southwest jet and warm advection in middle-low of troposphere was main feature of the wind profile products for the heavy rainfall process.

     

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