改进蛇优化算法及其在短期风电功率预测中的应用

Improved snake optimization algorithm and its application to short-term wind power prediction

  • 摘要: 为了对风电功率进行精确预测,基于互补集合经验模态分解(complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition,CEEMD)、改进蛇优化算法(improved snake optimization,ISO)和核极限学习机(kernel extreme learning machine,KELM),提出了一种混合短期风电功率预测模型. 首先,利用CEEMD将非平稳的风电功率数据分解为若干相对平稳的分量,以降低原始数据的不稳定性;然后,引入改进蛇优化算法对KELM参数进行优化,并对各平稳分量和残差构建CEEMD-ISO-KELM预测模型;最后,将各分量和残差的预测结果进行重构,得到最终的风电功率预测结果. 仿真结果表明,与现有预测模型相比,提出的预测模型能够很好地预测风电功率的变化趋势,在短期风电功率预测中取得了较好的精度.

     

    Abstract: To accurately predict wind power, this study proposes a short-term wind power prediction model based on complementary ensemble empirical modal decomposition (CEEMD), improved snake optimization algorithm (ISO), and kernel extreme learning machine (KELM). Firstly, the non-smooth wind power data are decomposed into multiple relatively smoother components using CEEMD to reduce the instability of the original data. Then, an improved snake optimization algorithm is introduced to optimize the parameters of KELM, and the CEEMD-ISO-KELM prediction model is constructed for each smooth component and residual. Finally, the prediction results of each component and residual are reconstructed to obtain the final wind power prediction results. The simulation results demonstrate that, in comparison with existing prediction models, the proposed model in this study exhibits exceptional capability in accurately predicting short-term wind power trends.

     

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