云南南景高速泥石流沟临界降雨阈值研究

Study on critical rainfall threshold of debris flow gully at Nan-Jing Expressway in Yunnan Province

  • 摘要: 泥石流监测是泥石流预警的重要内容,设定合理的降雨临界阈值更是预警效果的关键所在. 为监测云南南涧至景东高速公路沿线的泥石流灾害,选取了云南南涧的天宝田沟、安立河沟以及左家沟3个典型泥石流沟,结合水文学产汇流计算方法以及泥石流起动机理,在前期雨量为一般和干旱两种情况下,计算不同频率下的临界降雨阈值. 结果表明:在前期雨量为一般时,3条泥石流沟(天宝田沟、安立河沟及左家沟)的红色Ⅰ级临界阈值分别为90.63、67.04 mm/h以及97.23 mm/h;橙色Ⅱ级临界阈值分别为85.22、59.78 mm/h以及85.41 mm/h;黄色Ⅲ级临界阈值分别为69.61、49.65 mm/h以及69.46 mm/h;蓝色Ⅳ级临界阈值分别为58.04、41.74 mm/h以及57.39 mm/h. 干旱时,红色Ⅰ级临界阈值分别为99.06、70.65 mm/h以及99.45 mm/h;橙色Ⅱ级临界阈值分别为87.70、63.26 mm/h以及87.40 mm/h;黄色Ⅲ级临界阈值分别为72.14、52.95 mm/h以及71.10 mm/h;蓝色Ⅳ级临界阈值分别为60.18、44.81 mm/h以及59.02 mm/h. 在不同预警级别中,I−D曲线都呈现为 I=\alpha \times D^\beta 的函数关系,即雨强随着降雨历时的增加而降低. 经过研究分析,能使该地区泥石流起动的降雨类型主要分为短而急促的暴雨、雨量小但持续时间长的细雨和在前期雨量较大情况下而突发的降雨.

     

    Abstract: Mudslide monitoring is an important element of mudslide early warning. Setting a reasonable rainfall threshold is even more crucial to the effectiveness of early warning. To monitor the debris flow disaster along the Nanjian-Jingdong highway in Yunnan, three typical debris flow ditches Tianbaotian ditch, Anlihe ditch, and Zuojia ditch were selected in Nanjian, Yunnan. and the critical rainfall thresholds at different frequencies were calculated under the two conditions of general rainfall and drought in the previous period by combining with the calculation method of hydrological production and sinking and the mechanism of debris flow initiation. The results are as follows: when the previous rainfall is normal, the critical thresholds for the three debris flow gullies are 90.63 mm/h, 67.04 mm/h, and 97.23 mm/h for the red level Ⅰ; 85.22 mm/h, 59.78 mm/h, and 85.41 mm/h for the orange level Ⅱ; and 69.61 mm/h, 49.65 mm/h, and 69.46 mm/h for the yellow level Ⅲ; and 58.04 mm/h, 41.47 mm/h, and 57.39 mm/h for the blue level Ⅳ respectively. In the case of drought, the red level I critical thresholds were 99.06 mm/h, 70.65 mm/h, and 99.45 mm/h; the orange level II critical thresholds were 87.7 mm/h, 63.26 mm/h, and 87.4 mm/h; and the yellow level Ⅲ critical thresholds were 72.14 mm/h, 52.95 mm/h, and 71.10 mm/h; and the blue level Ⅳ critical thresholds were 60.18 mm/h, 44.81 mm/h, and 59.02 mm/h respectively. At different levels, the I-D curves exhibit a functional relationship of I=\alpha \times D^\beta , where the rainfall intensity decreases as the duration of the rainfall increases. The types of rainfall that can make the mudslide outbreaks are analyzed into short and rapid rainstorms, light rainfall with small amount but long duration, and sudden rainfall under the circumstance of a large amount of rainfall in the previous period.

     

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