基于agent的微观建模方法模拟市场病毒传播

Agent-based microscopic modeling method simulates market virus transmission

  • 摘要: 新冠病毒(SARS-CoV-2)传播的复杂性和全球影响引发了广泛关注. 在县市级疾病传播网络中,各种市场空间是人员交流集中和疾病扩散的重要场所. 目前国内外类似场所基于agent的微观仿真模型中存在对涉及疾病传播和控制的人、空间和防控政策之间的复杂交互关系机制建模不够合理,传播路径的描述大部分只考虑了人与人的接触传播,没有考虑人与物的接触传播,影响对综合防控政策的评估. 基于此提出了由个人agent(P agent)、市场空间agent(S agent)和政策干预agent(I agent)组成的农贸市场疾病传播微观仿真模型. 模型包含了人与人接触传播和人与物接触传播两种传播路径疾病传染模型. 利用搭建的微观仿真模型评估了针对个人的干预措施(检测、口罩和疫苗)、针对空间的干预措施(通风、规定出入口方向、消毒和限制进出市场人数规模)以及各阶段综合防控政策实现动态清零的可能性.

     

    Abstract: The complexity and global impact of the spread of the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has aroused widespread concern. In the county-level disease transmission network, various market Spaces are important places for the concentration of personnel exchanges and the spread of diseases. At present, in the agent-based microsimulation models of similar places at home and abroad, it is not reasonable to model the complex interaction mechanism between people, space and prevention and control policies related to disease transmission and control. Most of the descriptions of transmission paths only consider person-to-person infection, without considering surface-to-person infection, which affects the evaluation of comprehensive prevention and control policies. Based on this, a micro-simulation model of disease transmission in farmers' market was proposed, which was composed of individual agent (P agent), market space agent (S agent) and policy intervention agent (I agent). The model included two kinds of transmission path disease transmission models: person-to-person contact transmission and person-to-object contact transmission. Microsimulation models were used to assess the likelihood of dynamic zeroing of individual interventions (detection, masks and vaccines), space-specific interventions (ventilation, orientation of entrances or exits, disinfection and limit the number of people entering and leaving the market) and integrated control policies at each stage.

     

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