滇池外海蓝藻水华时空变化及影响因素

Study on the spatiotemporal variations of algal blooms and influencing factors in the Waihai of Dianchi Lake

  • 摘要: 蓝藻水华是滇池水环境治理工作的重点核心任务之一. 基于MODIS数据提取蓝藻水华发生信息,探讨了滇池水华时空变化特征;采用相关分析、多元线性回归、通径分析等方法,定量分析了气象和营养因子对蓝藻水华年际变化的影响. 研究结果表明:(1)2001—2023年,滇池水华发生的年均频率为56.8%,年累计面积为430.4 km2. 每年的5月下旬至10月下旬为水华暴发期. 空间分布上,外海北部水域发生频率最高,其次是东岸和西岸,湖心和南部最低. 近23年以来,水华的发生频率和面积均呈下降趋势,暴发起始日期逐渐推迟,终止日期提前,持续时间缩短,水华发生的状况得到明显改善. (2)总体上,气温升高、风速减小有利于水华暴发开始期的提前,而降水增加、风速减小则有利于暴发结束期的推迟. (3)气温的影响具有一定的季节性差异. 冬季气温与发生频率呈正相关,但相关性未达到显著性水平(P>0.05),而夏、秋季气温则与发生面积显著负相关. 春季,水华藻类复苏的临界温度介于11℃—12℃,日平均气温首次稳定通过该临界温度的日期越早,水华暴发的起始日期也越早;(4)气象和营养因子共同影响水华发生,但水华面积与频率的主导影响因子存在明显的差异:水华发生频率主要受2月最高气温、雨季最低气温、冬季降水和总磷浓度的影响,而水华面积则主要受雨季最低气温和总氮浓度的影响. 现阶段,气象因子是影响滇池水华发生频率年际变化的主导因素,但其对水华面积的影响相对较弱. 本研究结果可以为滇池水华的科学防控提供科学依据.

     

    Abstract: Algal blooms (ABs) are one of the key tasks in water environment management in Dianchi Lake. In this study, based on the information ABs information was extracted using MODIS data from 2001 to 2023, spatiotemporal variations of algal blooms in Dianchi Lake were analyzed. Using correlation analysis, multiple linear regression, and path analysis, the effects of climatic factors and nutrient levels on the interannual variation of cyanobacterial blooms and their interactions were quantitatively analyzed. The results showed that (1) during the study period, the average annual frequency of algal blooms in Dianchi Lake was 56.8 %, and the annual cumulative area was 430.4 km2. The ABs outbreak period generally occurs from late May to late October every year. Spatially, the frequency of ABs was the highest in the northern Waihai region of Dianchi Lake, followed by the eastern and western coasts, and lowest in the central and southern regions of the lake. In the past 23 years, both the frequency and area of ABs have exhibited a decreasing trend, with bloom onset progressively delayed, termination occurring earlier, and duration shortened, reflecting a marked improvement in the status of ABs.(2) Overall, higher air temperature or lower wind speed promoted an earlier onset of ABs, whereas increased precipitation or reduced wind speed delayed bloom termination. The influence of meteorological factors on ABs varied seasonally: air temperature had a non-significant positive correlation with ABs frequency in winter (P > 0.05) but was significantly negatively correlated with ABs area in summer and autumn. (3) The critical temperature for the resurgence of bloom-forming algae in spring was 11–12 °C, and an earlier date when the daily mean air temperature was first persistently maintained above this threshold corresponded to an earlier onset of ABs. (4) Both meteorological and nutrient factors jointly influenced the occurrence of ABs, but the dominant factors differed markedly between the frequency and area of ABs occurrence. ABs frequency was mainly driven by the maximum air temperature in February, minimum air temperature in the rainy season, winter precipitation, and total phosphorus (TP) concentration, whereas the ABs area was primarily determined by the minimum air temperature in the rainy season and total nitrogen (TN) concentration. At present, meteorological factors are the dominant drivers of the interannual variation in the frequency of algal blooms in Dianchi Lake, whereas their influence on ABs area is relatively limited. These findings provide a scientific basis for the effective management and control of ABs in Dianchi Lake.

     

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