基于Bi-TCN和注意力机制的双分支风电功率超短期预测

Double-branches ultra-short-term wind power prediction based on Bi-TCN and attention mechanism

  • 摘要: 为提高风电场功率多步预测的鲁棒性,提出了一种基于并行双向时间卷积网络(bidirectional temporal convolutional network, Bi-TCN)与混合信号分解、注意力机制的双分支输入超短期预测方法. 首先,将数据按季节划分,由于春季冷暖空气交替频繁,更难预测,具有代表性,因此选取春季作为实验对象;随后,运用Pearson和Kendall相关性分析筛选出对风电功率变化影响较大的气象因素构建出相关变量特征矩阵;接着,采用群分解和改进完全集合经验模态分解协同处理构建出功率特征矩阵,实现功率序列在时频域的多分辨率表征;最后,将功率和相关变量特征矩阵输入所提出的双时序分支混合注意力模型(dual-branch temporal - Bi-TCN PSHPA hybrid attention - TCN-BiLSTM self-attention, DBT-BPPHA-TBS),输出春季最后1d功率预测结果. 实验结果表明,DBT-BPPHA-TBS模型在长时间步长预测中稳定性优于其他风电功率组合模型,具有更高的预测精度和泛化能力.

     

    Abstract: To enhance the robustness of multi-step wind farm power prediction, this paper proposes a dual-branch input ul-tra-short-term prediction method based on parallel bidirectional temporal convolutional network (Bi-TCN), hybrid signal decomposition, and attention mechanism. First, the dataset is divided by seasons. Spring is selected as the experimental sub-ject due to its frequent alternation of cold and warm air masses, higher prediction difficulty, and representative characteristics. Subsequently, Pearson and Kendall correlation analyses are adopted to screen meteorological factors that exert significant impacts on wind power variation, based on which a correlation variable feature matrix is constructed. Then, swarm decom-position and improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise are utilized for collaborative processing to build the power feature matrix, realizing multi-resolution representation of the power series in the time-frequency domain. Finally, both the power feature matrix and the correlation variable feature matrix are fed into the proposed model (dual-branch temporal-Bi-TCN PSHPA hybrid attention-TCN-BiLSTM self-attention, DBT-BPPHA-TBS), generating the one-day power prediction results for the end of spring. Experimental results demon-strate that the DBT-BPPHA-TBS model outperforms other combined wind power prediction models in stability for long time-step prediction tasks, and achieves superior prediction accuracy and generalization capability.

     

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