基于Bi-TCN和注意力机制的双分支风电功率超短期预测

Double-branches Ultra-short-term Wind Power Prediction Based on Bi-TCN and Attention Mechanism

  • 摘要: 为提高风电场功率多步预测的鲁棒性,提出一种基于并行双向时间卷积网络(Bi-TCN)与混合信号分解、注意力机制的双分支输入超短期预测方法. 首先将数据按季节划分,由于春季冷暖空气交替频繁更难预测具有代表性,因而选取春季作为实验对象. 随后运用Pearson和Kendall相关性分析筛选出对风电功率变化影响较大的气象因素构建出相关变量特征矩阵;接着采用群分解(swarm decomposition, SWD)和改进完全集合经验模态分解(intrinsic computing expressive empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise, ICEEMDAN)协同处理构建出功率特征矩阵,实现功率序列在时频域的多分辨率表征;最后将功率和相关变量特征矩阵输入至DBT-BPPHA-TBS模型,输出春季最后一天功率预测结果. 实验结果表明,DBT-BPPHA-TBS模型在长时间步长预测中稳定性优于其他风电功率组合模型,具有更高的预测精度和泛化能力.

     

    Abstract: In order to improve the time-series modeling capability and multi-step prediction robustness of wind farm power prediction, a two-branch input ultra-short-term prediction method based on parallel bidirectional time convolution network (Bi-TCN) with hybrid signal decomposition and attention mechanism is proposed. Firstly, the data are divided into four seasons: spring, summer, fall and winter, and spring is selected as the experimental object because of the frequent alternation of cold and warm air in spring, which makes it more difficult to predict representatively. Subsequently, Pearson and Kendall correlation analyses were employed to screen meteorological factors with significant impacts on wind power variations, constructing a feature matrix of relevant variables. Following this, swarm decomposition (SWD) and improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (ICEEMDAN) were collaboratively applied to process and construct a power feature matrix, achieving multi-resolution representation of the power sequence in the time-frequency domain. Finally, the power and associated variable characteristics are input to the Double-branches Bi-TCN-based PSHPA Attention and TCN-BiLSTM-SA architecture (DBT-BPPHA-TBS) model and the output is the last day of power prediction in the spring. The experimental results show that the DBT-BPPHA-TBS model is more stable than other wind power combination models in long time step prediction, with higher prediction accuracy and generalization ability.

     

/

返回文章
返回