基于拐点分析的长三角土地利用/覆盖变化及其生态环境效应研究

Research on land use/cover change and associated eco-environmental effects in the Yangtze River Delta based on changepoint analysis

  • 摘要: 在区域发展过程中,土地利用/覆盖变化在不同阶段呈现显著的时空异质性,导致生态环境质量变化呈现阶段性差异. 但现有研究在阶段性分析中仍存在拐点识别不准确、前后变化特征对比不足等问题,难以系统揭示区域土地利用与生态环境质量的转折机制. 本文以长江三角洲地区为研究对象,基于2000—2020年的土地利用数据,采用分段线性回归、土地利用转移矩阵和克里金插值等分析方法,结合生态环境质量指数、土地利用/覆盖变化的生态贡献率,定量研究长三角地区土地利用/覆盖的时空演变特征及其对生态环境的影响. 研究结果表明:①2000—2020年间,长三角地区土地利用/覆盖和生态环境质量变化具有明显阶段性,拐点出现在2009年. ②2009年以前,林地、水域小幅增长,而耕地小幅减少;2009年以后,林地与水域转为小幅减少,而耕地减少速率明显减缓. ③2009 年以前生态环境质量略有改善,2009年以后则出现轻微退化. ④2009年以前土地利用/覆盖变化以“退耕还林、退耕还湖还湿”为主导,2009年以后则主要表现为“耕地上山”与“耕地下水”,该变化是生态环境质量由小幅改善转向小幅退化的主要原因. 本研究为揭示区域土地利用与生态环境质量的转折机制提供了方法借鉴,也为区域国土空间优化与生态环境保护提供了科学依据.

     

    Abstract: In the process of regional development, land use/cover change exhibits significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity, resulting in phase-dependent variations in ecological environmental quality. However, existing studies often face challenges such as inaccurate identification of turning points and insufficient comparative analyses, complicating the systematic understanding of the transition mechanism of land use and ecological environmental quality. Based on the case of the Yangtze River Delta with full-length land use data from year 2000 to 2020, this study quantitatively analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of land use/cover and its ecological implications by employing integrated methods such as piecewise linear regression, land use transition analysis, and kriging interpolation methods as well as the ecological environmental quality indices and the ecological contribution rate of land use/cover change. The main findings include: ① Between 2000 and 2020, a distinct phase in land use/cover evolution and ecological occurs, with a turning point identified in 2009. ② Prior to 2009, forest and water areas slightly increased while arable land decreased; After 2009, forest and water areas began to decline, with a markable reduction in the rate of arable land loss. ③ Before 2009, ecological quality improved but exhibited minor degradation thereafter. ④ The primary drivers of land use changes transitioned from "returning farmland to forest and wetlands” before 2009 to "hillside cultivation and subsurface irrigation" afterwards, influencing the shift in ecological quality. This study provides methodological insights into the interplay between land use and ecological quality, and serves as a scientific basis for land resource optimization and ecological protection in this region.

     

/

返回文章
返回