云南省高原特色农业生态效率时空特征及影响因素

Spatio-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of eco-efficiency of Plateau Characteristic Agriculture in Yunnan Province

  • 摘要: 提高农业生态效率对促进云南省高原特色农业高质量发展具有重要意义. 以云南省16个市州为研究单元,以2008—2022年为研究时段,构建具有高原特色的农业生态效率评价及影响因素解析指标体系,基于超效率SBM模型、Malmquist指数、Tobit回归模型、马尔科夫链等方法,解析农业生态效率的时空特征、影响因素和未来趋势. 结果表明:(1)研究期内,纯技术效率的提升驱动了省域农业生态效率总体上升提高,并在空间上呈现“西北高、东南低”的空间格局. (2)技术进步支撑了全要素生产率整体改善,呈现“NV”型走势,表现为怒江最高、曲靖最低的空间格局. (3)城镇化进程和农民收入增加驱动了生态效率改善,较低的机械化、受教育水平和工业化水平抑制了生态效率改善;降水与农作物需求的时空错配影响了生态效率稳定性;较高的化肥施用强度成为制约生态效率的关键性因子之一. (4)生态效率“空间低效锁定”特点突出,并呈现出高波动性,长期看生态效率向中高等级水平聚拢倾向明显.

     

    Abstract: Improving agricultural eco-efficiency is of great significance to promote the high-quality development of Yunnan Plateau Characteristic Agriculture. Taking 16 prefectures in Yunnan Province as research areas and the period from 2008 to 2022, an index system for evaluating agricultural eco-efficiency and analyzing influencing factors with plateau characteristics was constructed. Based on the SBM model, Malmquist index, Tobit regression model, and Markov chain, the spatio-temporal characteristics, influencing factors, and future trends of agricultural eco-efficiency were examined. The results showed that: (1) From 2008 to 2022, the improvement in pure technical efficiency drove the overall increase in agricultural eco-efficiency at the provincial level, showing a spatial pattern of “higher in the northwest and lower in the southeast.” (2) Technological progress supported the overall improvement in total factor productivity, exhibiting an “NV” trend, with the highest level in Nujiang and the lowest in Qujing. (3) Urbanization and farmers income growth drove the improvement of eco-efficiency, while lower mechanization, education levels, and industrialization levels constrained it. The temporal and spatial mismatch between precipitation and crop needs affected the stability of eco-efficiency. High fertilizer application intensity emerged as one of the key factors restricting agricultural eco-efficiency. (4) Eco-efficiency showed a pronounced “spatial low-efficiency lock-in” effect and high volatility. In the long term, there is a clear tendency for agricultural eco-efficiency to converge toward medium to high levels.

     

/

返回文章
返回