全球国际移民网络模型构建与结构特征分析

Construction and Structural Analysis of the Global International Migration Network Model

  • 摘要: 全球国际移民网络识别和结构特征分析是全球双边移民走廊的深层次研究. 移民网络既是人地关系地域系统演化的重要驱动因子,也是双边移民走廊的重要表现形式. 本文以国别为基本研究单元,基于2020—2024年国际移民存量数据估算了全球移民流量数据,通过社区探测算法提取了全球移民网络空间范围,基于主成分迭代分解算法构建了全球国际移民网络模型并探究了移民网络的结构特征. 研究表明:①全球195个国家间共产生4001.80万国际移民流量,形成7018条有效移民走廊;超大流量和大流量走廊承载了70.08%的移民流量,呈现显著的"核心—边缘"空间异质性. ②识别出7个具有显著内聚性的移民社区(模块度0.5037),根据空间分布特征可归纳为洲内国家组合型、跨洲跳跃组合型、跨洲邻近组合型三种模式,社区内移民流动(2630.62万人)显著高于社区间流动(1371.18万人). ③全球移民网络呈现清晰的层级化中心体系,不同规模社区表现出差异化的网络模式:大型社区采用多中心辐射状结构,中型社区呈现双中心分布式结构,小型社区表现为单核心星型结构. 研究揭示的移民网络模块化结构和层级化中心体系,为构建多层次移民治理体系和提升网络韧性提供了科学依据.

     

    Abstract: The identification and structural analysis of global international migration networks constitutes an in-depth investigation of bilateral migration corridors worldwide. Migration networks function both as a key driving force in the evolution of human–land relationship systems and as a significant manifestation of bilateral migration corridors. Using countries as the basic research unit, this study estimates global migration flow data based on international migrant stock data from 2020 to 2024, delineates the spatial scope of the global migration network through community detection algorithms, and explores the structural characteristics of the network using the principal component iterative decomposition algorithm. The findings indicate that: (1) A total of 40.018 million international migrants moved among 195 countries, forming 7,018 effective migration corridors; super-large and large-flow corridors together carry 70.08% of the total flows, revealing pronounced “core–periphery” spatial heterogeneity. (2) Seven cohesive migration communities were identified. Based on their spatial distribution characteristics, they can be categorized into three types: intra-continental combinations, intercontinental leapfrogging combinations, and intercontinental adjacency combinations. Migration flows within communities (26.3062 million) are significantly higher than those between communities (13.7118 million). (3) The global migration network exhibits a distinct hierarchical central system. Communities of different sizes display differentiated network patterns: large communities adopt multi-center radial structures, medium-sized communities exhibit dual-center distributed structures, and small communities present single-core star-shaped structures. The modularized structure and hierarchical central system revealed in this study provide a scientific foundation for constructing a multi-level migration governance framework and enhancing network resilience.

     

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