改革开放以来中国人口分布的集疏过程研究

Population concentration and dispersion in China since the Reform and Opening-Up

  • 摘要: 改革开放以来,巨量的人口迁移/流动和快速的人口转变重塑了中国人口分布格局. 摸清人口集聚与分散特征,有助于揭示人口分布的时空变化规律,将为制定区域规划、引导人口合理流动、优化人口布局,提供科学依据和决策支持. 研究基于分县人口普查数据,定量评价并对比分析了中国人口整体集疏格局的变化过程及集聚度的时空差异. 研究表明,1982—2020年,国家尺度的人口集聚态势逐渐加快,省级尺度的人口集聚活动剧烈且存在明显区域差异;集聚度空间分布的相对格局较为稳定,不同集聚度分区的面积和人口占比存在一定的变化;集聚度变化经历了由缓到急、由点到线和面、由沿海到内陆的时空变化过程,城市群在人口集疏过程中发挥了重要作用,人口集疏及其变化的评价必须落实到具体区域和时空尺度.

     

    Abstract: Since the Reform and Opening-up, large-scale population migration and rapid demographic transformation have reshaped the spatial pattern of China’s population distribution. Identifying the characteristics of population concentration and dispersion is crucial for revealing the spatiotemporal evolution of population distribution, thereby providing scientific evidence and decision support for regional planning, guiding rational population mobility, and optimizing population layout. Based on county-level census data, this study quantitatively evaluates and compares the evolution of China’s overall population concentration–dispersion pattern and the spatiotemporal variations in population agglomeration. The results show that from 1982 to 2020, population concentration at the national scale accelerated gradually, while aggregation at the provincial scale exhibited substantial intensity and pronounced regional disparities. The relative spatial pattern of population concentration remained largely stable, although the proportion of area and population within different concentration zones changed to some extent. The evolution of population agglomeration followed a spatiotemporal process that shifted from slow to rapid, from points to lines and areas, and from coastal to inland regions. Urban agglomerations played a crucial role in shaping the process of population concentration and dispersion. Therefore, the assessment of population concentration–dispersion and its evolution must be conducted within specific regional and spatiotemporal contexts.

     

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