基于双区域接触网络的边境地区病毒传播仿真模型研究

Research on simulation model of virus transmission in border areas based on two-region contact network

  • 摘要: 新冠病毒(SARS-CoV-2)因其高度传染性和潜在的严重危害性始终受到全球广泛关注. 随着全球化进程的加快,人员流动频繁,病毒传播特别是跨境传播带来的公共卫生风险愈发突出,边境地区因其复杂多变的情况,成为疫情传播的关键区域. 当前国内外基于接触网络的病毒传播建模研究主要聚焦于单一国家或区域,对于跨境及多区域传播情境的建模仍显不足,尤其在刻画不同区域因国情差异所采取的多样化防控政策方面,存在一定的局限性,难以全面反映实际防疫策略的异质性. 为此,提出了一种双区域无标度接触网络仿真模型,将不同地区建模为独立的网络区域,区域内模拟密集接触,而跨区域的传播仅通过有限人员流动实现. 该模型不仅能够模拟不同区域内部的接触网络结构,还支持针对各区域分别设定差异化的防疫政策;模型结合瑞丽市实际疫情的发展阶段,合理设置了动态政策组合,实现了感染者数量的动态清零. 此外,进一步模拟了该动态策略在边境偷渡者情境下的防控效果,结果表明该策略在应对边境输入性病例方面表现出良好的防控能力.

     

    Abstract: The SARS-CoV-2 virus, due to its high transmissibility and potential severity, has remained a major global public health concern. With the acceleration of globalization and the increasing frequency of human mobility, the risk of viral transmission—particularly cross-border spread—has grown significantly, with border regions becoming critical zones for epidemic dissemination due to their complex and dynamic characteristics. Existing contact network-based models of virus transmission have primarily focused on single-country or localized settings, often failing to adequately capture multi-regional dynamics or the heterogeneity of intervention policies arising from national differences. To address these limitations, this study proposes a multi-regional scale-free contact network simulation model, representing different countries or regions as distinct network layers. Intensive intra-regional contacts are modeled within each layer, while cross-regional transmission occurs through limited individual mobility. The model allows for region-specific implementation of heterogeneous intervention strategies and incorporates the actual epidemic progression in Ruili City to design a context-specific, dynamically adjusted policy combination that effectively achieves dynamic clearance of infections. Furthermore, the model simulates scenarios involving unauthorized cross-border entries, demonstrating that the proposed strategy maintains strong control performance against imported infections under such high-risk conditions.

     

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